| |
Stock Talk
by Maria Tomchick
When the stock market drops, most people wonder: why does the price of a
company's stock really matter? If stock values and prices are dependent
merely on the whim of investors and don't really reflect the value of
anything, then why care when the prices dip?
Theoretically, a company's stock price should reflect the performance of
the company. When it makes more profit or increases its market share, the
company's stock price should rise. In the real world, however, that's not
necessarily true. For example, Amazon.com has never made a profit, yet its
stock is currently hovering around $100 per share. In contrast, when Boeing
added more workers to ramp up production, its stock price fell. Only when
Boeing announced that it would lay off workers by the end of the year did
its stock price recover. Clearly, stock price reflects what investors think
about a company's potential profits but, more importantly, it also
influences the overall health of the company. Here's how:
First of all, companies are typically valued not just on their annual sales
and assets, but also on the price of their stock. When stock prices sink,
the overall value of the company decreases, and this effects the
credit-worthiness of the company (its ability to borrow money). Companies
that need to borrow or issue bonds to finance expansion have a problem when
their stock price sinks: they have to pay higher interest rates, because
their creditor now views them as a higher risk. For a recent, public-sector
example, the government of Brazil's credit-worthiness suffered when
investors began to sell off Brazilian bonds. Moody's Investors Service
downgraded the Brazilian government debt (similar to a sinking stock
price), and Brazil's creditors upped short-term interest rates to as high
as 50%. This meant that suddenly Brazil's interest payments on debt jumped
from 1% of the country's gross national product to an insane high of 7% of
GNP. Without interest payments on its debts, the government's budget would
balance; it's debt service payments that have forced the country to run up
ever higher deficits to the point where it's now begging the IMF for a $30
billion bailout package. The same thing can happen to businesses.
Secondly, in the past two decades, more companies attract upper level
management and high-tech or high-skilled employees by offering stock
options as part of their compensation package. This causes two major
problems for companies. First, major management decisions will be directly
linked to the performance of the company's stock--a good thing for
investors who want short-term, stratospheric growth, but not conducive to
making long-term, strategic decisions--which often demand investment in new
equipment or small wage raises for lower level workers in the near term.
Secondly, in a "tight labor market," companies compete with one another to
attract and retain highly-skilled workers. When a company offers stock
options, it suddenly becomes enormously important for the company's stock
to do well. If the price falls, the company risks losing a large number of
employees. The company would have to pay for recruitment, training, and
replacement of those employees. Lost productivity, training costs, loss of
morale, and the loss of experience that occurs when a company has high
turnover rate can propel it into a downward spiral. In a sense, this alone
proves how inefficient the system really is: companies hobble themselves by
overvaluing some employees--thereby creating an "upper class" of employees
who can easily afford to move from one company to the next.
Finally, when the stock price decreases, so does the ability of a company
to finance mergers. Much of the economic growth of the 1980s and 1990s has
been fueled by massive mergers. In the distant past, mergers were financed
by heavy borrowing, usually through the issue of corporate bonds or through
bank loans. Today, it's more common for large companies to finance mergers
through direct stock swaps. For example, Company A wants to buy their
competitor, Company B. Company A offers the shareholders of Company B a
chance to trade in 2 share of Company B's stock for 3 shares of Company
A's. The shareholders vote and, if they approve, the deal is finalized. If,
however, Company A's stock price falls drastically in the interim, Company
B's shareholders may decide to pull out of the deal. In recent months,
several large mergers have been put on hold or cancelled for this very
reason.
If stock prices really had no impact on companies, large companies wouldn't
spend enormous amounts of cash to buy up their stock when the price falls,
yet many do. Boeing, for example, recently spent a chunk of its cash
reserves buying up its own stock.
Stock prices reflect an enormous instability in the system; global
investors can literally drive a company out of business or force it to sell
to competitors, regardless of the overall health of the company. It doesn't
matter if the company makes a necessary product or performs a vital
service, or if it employs a lot of people. Waste is endemic to capitalism
(as any chronically unemployed or under-employed person can tell you). The
fact that companies can be scrapped in the pursuit of profit--just as
workers, the elderly, children, and the environment get tossed
aside--should surprise nobody.
|