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The Iraq Chronicles
by Geov Parrish
In Iraq, dying prematurely happens hundreds of times daily. But the
killing of up to 25 Iraqi civilians by private Blackwater
contractors set off a firestorm in both Baghdad and Washington. It
also, not coincidentally, showed just how irrelevant the Iraqi
government is. Prime Minister Maliki immediately condemned the killings,
yanked Blackwater's operating license, and ordered its personnel to
leave the country--a move summarily ignored by the US, as without
private contractors our heavily privatized military effort would grind
to a halt. (And besides, US contractors are immune to Iraqi law.)
Iraqis were so enraged by the murders that US personnel were confined to
the Green Zone for four days anyway.
BBC/ABC/NHK polling showed just how unpopular the Americans are
after the "success" of the escalation surge. The results were
grim enough in Iraq as a whole: 70 percent of Iraqis think security is
worse in escalation surge areas now compared to before it began.
(Another 11 percent thought it unchanged.) A whopping 60 percent now
think attacks on US troops are justified. But in Anbar Province, scene
of the escalation surge's greatest "success," it was worse:
"72 percent in Anbar expressed no confidence whatsoever in United
States forces. Seventy-six percent said the United States should
withdraw now--up from 49 percent in March, and far above the national
average. Every Anbar respondent in our survey opposed the presence of
American forces in Iraq--69 percent "strongly" so. Every Anbar
respondent called attacks on coalition forces "acceptable," far more
than anywhere else in the country. All called the United States-led
invasion wrong, including 68 percent who called it 'absolutely wrong.'"
Every. Anbar. Respondent. So much for winning hearts and minds.
Less covered than the Blackwater killings, but more significant, was
the withdrawal last week of Moktada al-Sadr's parliamentary allies
from Maliki's ruling coalition--not only splitting the Shiites, but
leaving Maliki with less than half of parliament in his camp. Who's
left? The Kurds and the Shiite exile parties (SCIRI and Dawa) with
little constituency in Iraq itself. If Iraq had a, you know, functioning
government that followed the law, this would end Maliki's rule; if you
want to get all technical and stuff, without a ruling majority, his
leadership (sic) is now illegal. But this won't happen, for two reasons:
first, Parliament rarely has a quorum, and second, the opposition can't
agree on anything anyway. Iraq's "government" is a joke.
How irrelevant is it? Perhaps the biggest Iraq story got almost no media
play here: the oil deal cut by the Kurdish provincial government with
Hunt Oil Co. of Dallas. Why is this a big deal? First, it means
local governments are starting to ignore the Green Zone government
entirely and cut their own deals, a death knell for the oil
"revenue-sharing" law that is perhaps the US government's biggest
benchmark for political "success" in Iraq. It also suggests Big Oil
is betting on the failure of the US mission in Iraq and the formal
partitioning of the country. The deal itself (along with one the
Kurds recently cut for natural gas) makes that partitioning more likely.
The British polling agency ORB, in surveying Iraqi families to find how
many had members who've died in the occupation and war, estimated that
overall a staggering 1.2 million or more Iraqi civilians have been
killed so far. That number is roughly in line with the widely
ridiculed 655,000 number published in an epidemiological study in The
Lancet summer of 2006, confirming not only that the civilian death
toll has been far higher than official estimates, but that the violence
has worsened sharply in the last year.
In the latest confirmation of just how bad the internal refugee crisis
has become, a Red Crescent report says that not only have two million
people fled their homes, but a staggering one million of those are in
Baghdad alone. What does that mean? Ethnic cleansing. Baghdad was
one of the most ethnically diverse provinces in Iraq; all those people
have been leaving because death squads would no longer allow
neighborhoods to be mixed. Sunnis have all but been driven out of
Baghdad, part of the de facto partitioning of Iraq that has already
happened, much of it while the escalation surge was supposed
to be putting an end to the problem.
More bad news in the "Iraqi Life Is Cheap" Dept.: Northern Iraq's
cholera epidemic, which has now struck some 5,000 people, has spread to
both Baghdad and Basra, with first cases confirmed in both cities.
Cholera is a disease that happens only when there's no safe drinking
water and the public health infrastructure has broken down
completely--conditions more than met throughout Occupied Iraq.
In the "But Life Is Cheaper In D.C." Dept., Congress continued showing
its priorities last week, spending ample time debating the
appropriateness of a newspaper ad while Republicans blocked measures to
address the war itself. In the Senate, the Reid-Feingold bill to cut
off funding in June failed 28-70 (Patty Murray voted yes, Maria
Cantwell, no). The Senate also rejected Sen. Jim Webb's bill to give
troops equal time at home, 56-44, short of the 60 votes needed to break
the Republican filibuster. The Congressional Budget Office estimated
that even drawing down to 55,000 troops in Iraq (a proposal on nobody's
table), George Bush's perpetual war would cost $25 billion a year, or up
to two trillion dollars overall. Those numbers actually seem low.
And the ever-busy Rep. Henry Waxman has a new target in his oversight
investigations: State Department Inspector General Howard
Krongard, who Waxman accuses of cover-ups in investigations of waste
and fraud in private contracts in Iraq and Afghanistan. The organization
representing Foreign Service diplomats has joined in, calling on
Krongard to resign.
Gen. David "Ass-Kissing Little Chickenshit" Petraeus spread it
thick over Congress this month, touting "success" in Iraq (as did the
Ass-Kissee-in-Chief in a nationally televised address) and dominating
American media headlines. But even the Pentagon report accompanying Gen.
AKLC's testimony undercut it. That showed that even by the
administration's extremely generous definition, only half of Congress's
18 benchmarks showed "progress," exactly one more than in an interim
report in July. Meanwhile, a separate State Department report, also
quietly released in a Friday Afternoon News Dump, revealed
that--surprise!--religious freedom in Iraq is down sharply in the last year.
Somehow, this all is being spun as "success," and Bush is now promising
a "withdrawal" to celebrate it--next Spring, six months past schedule,
back to pre-escalation surge troop levels because the US
military can't sustain its current deployment without either extending
tours (again) or starting a draft. Or maybe Bush will just send our
exhausted soldiers to Iran. That propaganda campaign also
continued apace, with the US claiming that a fatal mortar attack on US
military headquarters was carried out with an Iranian rocket. The US
also arrested an Iranian trade diplomat in northern Iraq and accused him
of smuggling IEDs into the country. The Kurdish government, which was
hosting the man, protested strongly, but to no avail. And in the
week's most surreal bit of Iran-bashing, Iranian President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad, set to be in New York this week for the opening of the UN
General Assembly, was refused permission by the US to lay a wreath at
the World Trade Center. Why? Well, the request angered US diplomats, who
accused the Iranian leader of--gasp--"wanting to use Ground Zero as a
photo-op."
Well, if that's the criteria.
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